The Coming Enrollment Cliff: Why Facilities Readiness Matters More Than Ever

Across higher education, one phrase is dominating conversations: the “enrollment cliff.” Beginning as early as 2026, colleges and universities are expected to face a sharp and sustained decline in student populations, with 2025 likely marking the last noticeable peak before the drop begins. 

However, this shift isn’t sudden or surprising. Economist Nathan Grawe, in his book Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, traced the trend back to the decline in birth rates following the 2008 recession. What once seemed like a distant concern is now a pivotal moment, and it’s arriving as institutions grapple with rising costs, deferred maintenance, and evolving expectations from a new generation of students.  

The stakes are high: with fewer prospective students entering the pipeline, every enrollment decision matters more, and facilities readiness is one of the few variables institutions can still control. Is your campus ready to compete for every student? 

First Impressions Aren’t Cosmetic, They’re a Competitive Advantage 

First impressions form in minutes, and in higher ed, they often shape final enrollment decisions. According to an Inside Higher Ed / College Pulse survey cited by the APPA Thought Leaders Report 2024, 65% of students said campus facilities influenced their decision to enroll. 

Facilities are more than buildings; they’re a statement of institutional quality, care, and commitment. Everything from landscaping and walkways to classroom design and common areas shows how much an institution invests in its student experience. As APPA notes, “grounds appearance and clean buildings directly impact student recruitment and retention.” 

Meeting or exceeding APPA standards isn’t simply about aesthetics; it’s about signaling to prospective students that your institution prioritizes their experience from day one. 

Could a facility condition assessment reveal quick wins that improve those first impressions?

Doing More With Less: Facility Leaders on the Front Line 

Declining enrollment means declining tuition revenue, and that means facilities teams will be expected to do more with less. Every investment will need to be data-driven, defensible, and closely tied to institutional priorities. 

Gordian’s 2024 State of Facilities in Higher Education report warns that misalignment between campus footprint and actual student demand poses significant financial risk. Even unused or underutilized buildings require maintenance, diverting resources from high-impact areas.  

The same 2024 State of Facilities in Higher Education report also reveals that square footage maintained per worker has increased by nearly 25% since 2007, while exterior condition scores have declined 15% and mechanical system scores by 20%. These are clear signs that deferred maintenance is no longer just a background issue; it’s a challenge that affects student experience and institutional performance.  

The campuses that thrive in this environment will move from reactive work to proactive planning by: 

• Quantifying risk and prioritizing investments with the greatest impact 

• Modeling long-term costs to avoid budget shocks and justify capital requests 

• Repurposing underused space to better align with evolving enrollment patterns 

See how tools like advanced needs assessment or asset management platforms help you align facility decisions with what matters most. 

Building the Campus Students Want and Expect 

The campus of the future won’t look like the one we know today. According to the APPA Thought Leaders Report 2024, the campus of the future will need to be: 

• Flexible and multifunctional, supporting hybrid learning and evolving program needs 

• Digitally enabled, providing seamless transitions between in-person and virtual environments 

• Sustainable and efficient, meeting both environmental targets and budget constraints 

• Adaptive and student-centered, reimagining existing spaces to support well-being and inclusivity 

Adaptive reuse, rather than new construction, is increasingly shaping campus development. Institutions that plan for this shift now will be positioned to attract, retain, and support students well into the future. 

Are you leveraging integrated systems and capital planning tools to future-proof your facilities? 

Final Thought: Facilities as a Deciding Factor 

The enrollment cliff isn’t just a demographic event; it’s a competitive race. With fewer students to recruit, every facility decision becomes more consequential. Institutions that align their infrastructure with evolving expectations, student experience, and long-term sustainability will not only weather the demographic shift, but they’ll lead through it. 

Facilities leaders are uniquely positioned to shape that future. By planning ahead, making thoughtful investment choices, and demonstrating the real impact of facilities readiness, they can help their campuses thrive in a more competitive landscape. 

Ready to build a facilities strategy that helps your campus stand out? Talk with our team to start planning for the future.